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We continue to limit our direct equity exposure in line with our risk preferences. At a business unit level, investment limits and local investment regulations require that business units hold diversified portfolios of assets thereby reducing exposure to individual equities. The Group does not have material holdings of unquoted equity securities.

Equity risk is also managed using a variety of derivative instruments, including futures and options. Businesses actively model the performance of equities through the use of risk models, in particular to understand the impact of equity performance on guarantees, options and bonus rates. An equity hedging strategy remains in place to help control the Group's overall direct and indirect exposure to equities. At 31 December 2018 the Group continues to hold a series of macro equity hedges to reduce the overall shareholder equity risk exposure.

Sensitivity to changes in equity prices is given in section (j) Risk and capital management, below.

(ii)         Property price risk

The Group is subject to property price risk directly due to holdings of investment properties in a variety of locations worldwide and indirectly through investments in mortgages and mortgage backed securities. Investment in property is managed at business unit level, and is subject to local regulations on investments, liquidity requirements and the expectations of policyholders.

As at 31 December 2018, no material derivative contracts had been entered into to mitigate the effects of changes in property prices. Exposure to property risk on equity release mortgages from sustained underperformance in the UK House Price Index (HPI) is mitigated by capping loan to value on origination at low levels and regularly monitoring the performance of the mortgage portfolio.

Sensitivity to changes in property prices is given in section (j) Risk and capital management, below.

(iii)        Interest rate risk

Interest rate risk arises primarily from the Group's investments in long-term debt and fixed income securities and their movement relative to the value placed on the insurance liabilities. A number of policyholder product features have an influence on the Group's interest rate risk. The major features include guaranteed surrender values, guaranteed annuity options, and minimum surrender and maturity values. Details of material guarantees and options are given in note 45.

Exposure to interest rate risk is monitored through several measures that include duration, capital modelling, sensitivity testing and stress and scenario testing. The impact of exposure to sustained low interest rates is considered within our scenario testing.

The Group typically manages interest rate risk by investing in fixed interest securities which closely match the interest rate sensitivity of the liabilities where such investments are available. In particular, a key objective is to at least match the duration of our annuity liabilities with assets of the same duration, and in some cases where appropriate cash flow matching has been used. These assets include corporate bonds, residential mortgages and commercial mortgages. Should they default before maturity, it is assumed that the Group can reinvest in assets of a similar risk and return profile, which is subject to market conditions. Interest rate risk is also managed in some business units using a variety of derivative instruments, including futures, options, swaps, caps and floors.

Some of the Group's products, principally participating contracts, expose us to the risk that changes in interest rates will impact on profits through a change in the interest spread (the difference between the amounts that we are required to pay under the contracts and the investment income we are able to earn on the investments supporting our obligations under those contracts). The primary markets where Aviva is exposed to this risk are the UK, France and Italy.

Despite the continued pick up in market interest rates from the historical lows experienced in 2016, the continued low interest rate environment in a number of markets around the world has resulted in our current reinvestment yields being lower than the overall current portfolio yield, primarily for our investments in fixed income securities and commercial mortgage loans. As long as market yields remain below the current portfolio level, the portfolio yield, and as a result net investment income, will continue to decline. While we anticipate interest rates may remain below historical averages before the 2008 financial crisis for some time to come, it is also possible that further future increases in interest rates or market anticipation of such increases, if larger and more rapid than expected, could adversely impact market values of our portfolio of fixed income securities and increase the risk of credit defaults and downgrades.

Other product lines of the Group, such as protection, are not significantly sensitive to interest rate or market movements. For unit-linked business, the shareholder margins emerging are typically a mixture of annual management fees and risk/expense charges. Risk and expense margins will be largely unaffected by low interest rates. Annual management fees may increase in the short term as the move towards low interest rates increases the value of unit funds. However, in the medium term, unit funds will grow at a lower rate which will reduce fund charges. For the UK annuities business interest rate exposure is mitigated by closely matching the duration of liabilities with assets of the same duration.

The UK participating business includes contracts with features such as guaranteed surrender values, guaranteed annuity options, and minimum surrender and maturity values. These liabilities are managed through duration matching of assets and liabilities and the use of derivatives, including swaptions. As a result, the Group's exposure to sustained low interest rates on this portfolio is not material. The Group's key exposure to low interest rates arises through its other participating contracts, principally in Italy and France. Some of these contracts also include features such as guaranteed minimum bonuses, guaranteed investment returns and guaranteed surrender values. In a low interest rate environment there is a risk that the yield on assets might not be sufficient to cover these obligations. For certain of its participating contracts the Group is able to amend guaranteed crediting rates. Our ability to lower crediting rates may be limited by competition, bonus mechanisms and contractual arrangements.

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Details of material guarantees and options are given in note 45. In addition, the following table summarises the weighted average minimum guaranteed crediting rates and weighted average book value yields on assets as at 31 December 2018 for our Italian and French participating contracts, where the Group's key exposure to sustained low interest rates arises.

1    'Other' includes UK participating business

Profit before tax on General Insurance and Health Insurance business is generally a mixture of insurance, expense and investment returns. The asset portfolio is invested primarily in fixed income securities and the reduction in interest rates over the last decade has reduced the investment component of profit, although in 2018 there was a small partial reversal in this long term trend. The portfolio investment yield and average total invested assets in our general insurance and health business are set out in the table below.

1    Before realised and unrealised gains and losses and investment expenses

The nature of the business means that prices in certain circumstances can be increased to maintain overall profitability. This is subject to the competitive environment in each market. To the extent that there are further falls in interest rates the investment yield would be expected to decrease further in future periods.

Sensitivity to changes in interest rates is given in section (j) Risk and capital management, below.

(iv)        Inflation risk

Inflation risk arises primarily from the Group's exposure to general insurance claims inflation, to inflation linked benefits within the defined benefit staff pension schemes and within the UK annuity portfolio and to expense inflation. Increases in long-term inflation expectations are closely linked to long-term interest rates and so are frequently considered with interest rate risk. Exposure to inflation risk is monitored through capital modelling, sensitivity testing and stress and scenario testing. The Group typically manages inflation risk through its investment strategy and, in particular, by investing in inflation linked securities and through a variety of derivative instruments, including inflation linked swaps.

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(v)          Currency risk

The Group has minimal exposure to currency risk from financial instruments held by business units in currencies other than their functional currencies, as nearly all such holdings are backing either unit-linked or with-profits contract liabilities or are hedged. As a result the foreign exchange gains and losses on investments are largely offset by changes in unit-linked and with-profits liabilities and fair value changes in derivatives attributable to changes in foreign exchange rates recognised in the income statement.

The Group operates internationally and as a result is exposed to foreign currency exchange risk arising from fluctuations in exchange rates of various currencies. Approximately 59% of the Group's premium income arises in currencies other than sterling and the Group's net assets are denominated in a variety of currencies, of which the largest are sterling, euro and Canadian dollars. The Group does not hedge foreign currency revenues as these are substantially retained locally to support the growth of the Group's business and meet local regulatory and market requirements. However, the Group does use foreign currency forward contracts to hedge planned dividends from its subsidiaries.

Businesses aim to maintain sufficient assets in local currency to meet local currency liabilities, however movements may impact the value of the Group's consolidated shareholders' equity which is expressed in sterling. This aspect of foreign exchange risk is monitored and managed centrally, against pre-determined limits. These exposures are managed by aligning the deployment of regulatory capital by currency with the Group's regulatory capital requirements by currency. Currency borrowings and derivatives are used to manage exposures within the limits that have been set. Except where the Group has applied net investment hedge accounting (see note 60(a)), foreign exchange gains and losses on foreign currency borrowings are recognised in the income statement, whereas foreign exchange gains and losses arising on consolidation from the translation of assets and liabilities of foreign subsidiaries are recognised in other comprehensive income. At 31 December 2018 and 2017, the Group's total equity deployment by currency including assets 'held for sale' was:

A 10% change in sterling to euro/Canada$ (CAD$) period-end foreign exchange rates would have had the following impact on total equity.

A 10% change in sterling to euro/Canada$ (CAD$) average foreign exchange rates applied to translate foreign currency profits would have had the following impact on profit before tax, including resulting gains and losses on foreign exchange hedges.

The balance sheet changes arise from retranslation of business unit statements of financial position from their functional currencies into sterling, with above movements being taken through the currency translation reserve. These balance sheet movements in exchange rates therefore have no impact on profit. Net asset and profit before tax figures are stated after taking account of the effect of currency hedging activities.

(vi)        Derivatives risk

Derivatives are used by a number of the businesses. Derivatives are primarily used for efficient investment management, risk hedging purposes, or to structure specific retail savings products. Activity is overseen by the Group Capital and Group Risk teams, which monitor exposure levels and approve large or complex transactions.

The Group applies strict requirements to the administration and valuation processes it uses, and has a control framework that is consistent with market and industry practice for the activity that is undertaken.

(vii)       Correlation risk

The Group recognises that lapse behaviour and potential increases in consumer expectations are sensitive to and interdependent with market movements and interest rates. These interdependencies are taken into consideration in the internal capital model and in scenario analysis.

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(d)          Liquidity risk

Liquidity risk is the risk of not being able to make payments as they become due because there are insufficient assets in cash form. The relatively illiquid nature of insurance liabilities is a potential source of additional investment return by allowing us to invest in higher yielding, but less liquid assets such as commercial mortgages and infrastructure loans. The Group seeks to ensure that it maintains sufficient financial resources to meet its obligations as they fall due through the application of a Group liquidity risk policy and business standard and through the development of its liquidity risk management plan. At Group and business unit level, there is a liquidity risk appetite which requires that sufficient liquid resources be maintained to cover net outflows in a stress scenario. In addition to the existing liquid resources and expected inflows, the Group maintains significant undrawn committed borrowing facilities (£1,650 million) from a range of leading international banks to further mitigate this risk.

Maturity analyses

The following tables show the maturities of our insurance and investment contract liabilities, and of the financial and reinsurance assets held to meet them. A maturity analysis of the contractual amounts payable for borrowings and non-hedge derivatives is given in notes 52 and 60, respectively. Contractual obligations under operating leases and capital commitments are given in note 56.

(i) Analysis of maturity of insurance and investment contract liabilities

For non-linked insurance business, the following table shows the gross liability at 31 December 2018 and 2017 analysed by remaining duration. The total liability is split by remaining duration in proportion to the cash-flows expected to arise during that period, as permitted under IFRS 4, Insurance Contracts.

Almost all linked business and non-linked investment contracts may be surrendered or transferred on demand. For such contracts, the earliest contractual maturity date is therefore the current statement of financial position date, for a surrender amount approximately equal to the current statement of financial position liability. However, we expect surrenders, transfers and maturities to occur over many years, and therefore the tables below reflect the expected cash flows for these contracts, rather than their contractual maturity date. This table includes amounts held for sale.

(ii)         Analysis of maturity of financial assets

The following table provides an analysis, by maturity date of the principal, of the carrying value of financial assets which are available to fund the repayment of liabilities as they crystallise. This table excludes assets held for sale.

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The assets above are analysed in accordance with the earliest possible redemption date of the instrument at the initiation of the Group. Where an instrument is transferable back to the issuer on demand, such as most unit trusts or similar types of investment vehicle, it is included in the 'On demand or within 1 year' column. Debt securities with no fixed contractual maturity date are generally callable at the option of the issuer at the date the coupon rate is reset under the contractual terms of the instrument. The terms for resetting the coupon are such that we expect the securities to be redeemed at this date, as it would be uneconomic for the issuer not to do so, and for liquidity management purposes we manage these securities on this basis. The first repricing and call date is normally ten years or more after the date of issuance. Most of the Group's investments in equity securities and fixed maturity securities are market traded and therefore, if required, can be liquidated for cash at short notice.

(e)          Life and health insurance risk

Life insurance risk in the Group arises through its exposure to mortality risk and exposure to worse than anticipated operating experience on factors such as persistency levels, exercising of policyholder options and management and administration expenses. The Group's health insurance business (including private health insurance, critical illness cover, income protection and personal accident insurance, as well as a range of corporate healthcare products) exposes the Group to morbidity risk (the proportion of our customers falling sick) and medical expense inflation. The Group chooses to take measured amounts of life and health insurance risk provided that the relevant business has the appropriate core skills to assess and price the risk and adequate returns are available. The Group's underwriting strategy and appetite is communicated via specific policy statements, related business standards and guidelines. Life insurance risk is managed primarily at business unit level with oversight at the Group level.

The underlying risk profile of our life and health insurance risks, primarily persistency, longevity, mortality and expense risk, has remained stable during 2018, although the current continued relatively low levels of interest rates have increased our sensitivity to longevity shocks compared to historical norms. We are also exposed to longevity risk through the Aviva Staff Pension Scheme, to which our economic exposure has been reduced since 2014 by entering into a longevity swap covering approximately £5 billion of pensioner in payment scheme liabilities. Longevity risk remains the Group's most significant life insurance risk, while persistency risk remains significant and continues to have a volatile outlook with underlying performance linked to some degree to economic conditions. However, businesses across the Group have continued to make progress with a range of customer retention activities. The Group has continued to write considerable volumes of life protection business, and to utilise reinsurance to reduce exposure to potential losses. More generally, life insurance risks are believed to provide a significant diversification against other risks in the portfolio. Life insurance risks are modelled within the internal capital model and subject to sensitivity and stress and scenario testing. Our UK Life business is in the process of implementing a new actuarial modelling system for non-profit business. During the year ended 31 December 2018, annuities and certain protection products were transferred into the new modelling system which had minimal financial impact.

The assumption and management of life and health insurance risks is governed by the Group-wide business standards covering underwriting, pricing, product design and management, in-force management, claims handling, and reinsurance. The individual life and health insurance risks are managed as follows:

· Mortality and morbidity risks are mitigated by use of reinsurance. The Group allows businesses to select reinsurers, from those approved by the Group, based on local factors, but retains oversight of the overall exposures and monitors that the aggregation of risk ceded is within credit risk appetite.

· Longevity risk and internal experience analysis are monitored against the latest external industry data and emerging trends. Whilst individual businesses are responsible for reserving and pricing for annuity business, the Group monitors the exposure to this risk and any associated capital implications. The Group has used reinsurance solutions to reduce the risks from longevity and continually monitors and evaluates emerging market solutions to mitigate this risk further.

· Persistency risk is managed at a business unit level through frequent monitoring of company experience, and benchmarked against local market information. Generally, persistency risk arises from customers lapsing their policies earlier than has been assumed. Where possible the financial impact of lapses is reduced through appropriate product design. Businesses also implement specific initiatives to improve the retention of policies which may otherwise lapse. The Group has developed guidelines on persistency management.

· Expense risk is primarily managed by the business units through the assessment of business unit profitability and frequent monitoring of expense levels.

Embedded derivatives

The Group is exposed to the risk of changes in policyholder behaviour due to the exercise of options, guarantees and other product features embedded in its long-term savings products. These product features offer policyholders varying degrees of guaranteed benefits at maturity or on early surrender, along with options to convert their benefits into different products on pre-agreed terms. The extent of the impact of these embedded derivatives differs considerably between business units and exposes Aviva to changes in policyholder behaviour in the exercise of options as well as market risk.

Examples of each type of embedded derivative affecting the Group are:

· Options: call, put, surrender and maturity options, guaranteed annuity options, options to cease premium payment, options for withdrawals free of market value adjustment, annuity options, and guaranteed insurability options.

· Guarantees: embedded floor (guaranteed return), maturity guarantee, guaranteed death benefit, and guaranteed minimum rate of annuity payment.

· Other: indexed interest or principal payments, maturity value, loyalty bonus.

The impact of these is reflected in the capital model and managed as part of the asset liability framework. Further disclosure on financial guarantees and options embedded in contracts and their inclusion in insurance and investment contract liabilities is provided in note 45.

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(f) General insurance risk

Types of risk

General insurance risk in the Group arises from:

· Fluctuations in the timing, frequency and severity of claims and claim settlements relative to expectations;

· Unexpected claims arising from a single source or cause;

· Inaccurate pricing of risks or inappropriate underwriting of risks when underwritten; and

· Inadequate reinsurance protection or other risk transfer techniques.

Aviva has a preference for general insurance risk in measured amounts for explicit reward, in line with our core skills in underwriting and pricing. The majority of the general insurance business underwritten by the Group continues to be short tail in nature such as motor, household and commercial property insurances. The Group's underwriting strategy and appetite is communicated via specific policy statements, related business standards and guidelines. General insurance risk is managed primarily at business unit level with oversight at the Group level. Claims reserving is undertaken by local actuaries in the various general insurance businesses and is also subject to periodic external reviews. Reserving processes are further detailed in note 42 Insurance liabilities.

The vast majority of the Group's general insurance business is managed and priced in the same country as the domicile of the customer.

Management of general insurance risks

Significant insurance risks will be reported under the risk management framework. Additionally, the capital model is used to assess the risks that each general insurance business unit, and the Group as a whole, is exposed to, quantifying their impact and calculating appropriate capital requirements.

Business units have developed mechanisms that identify, quantify and manage accumulated exposures to contain them within the limits of the appetite of the Group. The business units are assisted by the General Insurance Council which provides technical input for major decisions which fall outside individual delegated limits or escalations outside group risk preferences, group risk accumulation, concentration and profitability limits.

Reinsurance strategy

Significant reinsurance purchases are reviewed annually at both business unit and Group level to verify that the levels of protection being bought reflect any developments in exposure and the risk appetite of the Group. The basis of these purchases is underpinned by analysis of capital, earnings and capital volatility, cash flow and liquidity and the Group's franchise value.

Detailed actuarial analysis is used to calculate the Group's extreme risk profile and then design cost and capital efficient reinsurance programmes to mitigate these risks to within agreed appetites. For businesses writing general insurance we analyse the natural catastrophe exposure using our own internal probabilistic catastrophe model which is benchmarked against external catastrophe models widely used by the rest of the (re)insurance industry.

The Group cedes much of its worldwide catastrophe risk to third-party reinsurers through excess of loss and aggregate excess of loss structures. The Group purchases a Group-wide catastrophe reinsurance programme to protect against catastrophe losses exceeding a 1 in 200 year return period. The total Group potential retained loss from its most concentrated catastrophe exposure peril (Northern Europe Windstorm) is approximately £150 million on a per occurrence basis and £175 million on an annual aggregate basis. Any losses above these levels are covered by the group-wide catastrophe reinsurance programme to a level in excess of a 1 in 200 year return period. In addition the Group purchases a number of GI business line specific reinsurance programmes with various retention levels to protect both capital and earnings, and has reinsured 100% of its latent exposures to its historic UK employers' liability and public liability business written prior to 31 December 2000.

(g)          Asset management risk

Aviva is directly exposed to the risks associated with operating an asset management business through its ownership of Aviva Investors. The underlying risk profile of our asset management risk is derived from investment performance, specialist investment professionals and leadership, product development capabilities, fund liquidity, margin, client retention, regulatory developments, fiduciary and contractual responsibilities. Funds invested in illiquid assets such as commercial property are particularly exposed to liquidity risk. The risk profile is regularly monitored.

A client relationship team is in place to manage client retention risk, while all new asset management products undergo a review and approval process at each stage of the product development process, including approvals from legal, compliance and risk functions. Investment performance against client objectives relative to agreed benchmarks is monitored as part of our investment performance and risk management process, and subject to further independent oversight and challenge by a specialist risk team, reporting directly to the Aviva Investors' Chief Risk Officer.

(h)          Operational risk

Operational risk is the risk of direct or indirect loss, arising from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems, or external events including changes in the regulatory environment. We have limited appetite for operational risk and aim to reduce these risks as far as is commercially sensible.

Our business units are primarily responsible for identifying and managing operational risks within their businesses, within the Group-wide operational risk framework including the risk and control self-assessment process. Businesses must be satisfied that all material risks falling outside our risk tolerances are being mitigated, monitored and reported to an appropriate level. Any risks with a high potential impact are monitored centrally on a regular basis. Businesses use key indicator data to help monitor the status of the risk and control environment. They also identify and capture loss events, taking appropriate action to address actual control breakdowns and promote internal learning.

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The increasing importance to our strategy of digital interaction with our customers and advanced data analytics, the conduct, data protection and financial crime agenda of the European institutions, the FCA and other regulators, as well as the increasing cyber security threat, as evidenced by continuing instances of high profile cyber security breaches for other corporates in the UK and elsewhere, mean that the Group's inherent risk exposure to risks such as data theft, conduct regulatory breaches (including financial crime) and customer service interruption due to IT systems failure increased in 2018 and is expected to continue to increase into the future. The risk of customer service interruption is increased by the age and complexity of the Group's IT infrastructure, which at times during the first half of 2018 resulted in disruption to continuous service to our customers, while our UK long-term savings business also experienced some functionality issues during its update of its platform capability. During 2018 we have continued to take action to reduce our residual exposure to these risks and improve our operational resilience through our conduct risk management framework, financial crime risk mitigation programme and significant investment in upgrading our IT infrastructure (including migrations to a new data centre infrastructure provider and to the Cloud) and IT Security Transformation programme, and by ensuring appropriate consideration of IT infrastructure and security risks in developing our digital strategy, and will continue to do so into the future.

(i) Brand and reputation risk

We are exposed to the risk that litigation, employee misconduct, operational failures, the outcome of regulatory investigations, media speculation and negative publicity, disclosure of confidential client information, inadequate services, whether or not founded, could impact our brands or reputation. Any of our brands or our reputation could also be affected if products or services recommended by us (or any of our intermediaries) do not perform as expected (whether or not the expectations are founded) or customers' expectations for the product change. We seek to reduce this risk to as low a level as commercially sensible.

The FCA regularly considers whether we are meeting the requirement to treat our customers fairly and we make use of various metrics to assess our own performance, including customer advocacy, retention and complaints. Failure to meet these requirements could also impact our brands or reputation.

If we do not manage the perception of our brands and reputation successfully, it could cause existing customers or agents to withdraw from our business and potential customers or agents to choose not to do business with us.

(j) Risk and capital management

(i) Sensitivity test analysis

The Group uses a number of sensitivity tests to understand the volatility of earnings, the volatility of its capital requirements, and to manage its capital more efficiently. Sensitivities to economic and operating experience are regularly produced on the Group's key financial performance metrics to inform the Group's decision making and planning processes, and as part of the framework for identifying and quantifying the risks to which each of its business units, and the Group as a whole, are exposed.

(ii)         Life insurance and investment contracts

The nature of long-term business is such that a number of assumptions are made in compiling these financial statements. Assumptions are made about investment returns, expenses, mortality rates and persistency in connection with the in-force policies for each business unit. Assumptions are best estimates based on historic and expected experience of the business. A number of the key assumptions for the Group's central scenario are disclosed elsewhere in these statements.

(iii)        General insurance and health business

General insurance and health claim liabilities are estimated by using standard actuarial claims projection techniques. These methods extrapolate the claims development for each accident year based on the observed development of earlier years. In most cases, no explicit assumptions are made as projections are based on assumptions implicit in the historic claims.

(iv)        Sensitivity test results

Illustrative results of sensitivity testing for long-term business, general insurance and health business and the fund management and non-insurance business are set out below. For each sensitivity test the impact of a reasonably possible change in a single factor is shown, with other assumptions left unchanged.

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Long-term business

Sensitivities as at 31 December 2018

Sensitivities as at 31 December 2017

Changes in sensitivities between 2018 and 2017 reflect underlying movements in the value of assets and liabilities, the relative duration of assets and liabilities and asset liability management actions. The sensitivities to economic and demographic movements relate mainly to business in the UK. Our sensitivity to interest rates has increased over the period mainly due to the impacts of our hedging programme which protects Solvency II capital and increased exposure in the UK, predominantly as a result of surplus assets originated in 2018 to back new business in 2019 that would otherwise be invested in cash.